A better way to rate how well a team drafts, and the final step of our analysis, is to find the gap between the expected performance of their picks and the actual performance of the players they selected. (ESPN’s Sharon Katz took this approach in her analysis of the 2015 and 2016 drafts.) For example: Matt Ryan produced 73 AV in his first five seasons, while Richard Sherman produced 72 they were similarly great players. But Ryan had an expected AV of 40 as the third overall selection, while Sherman, taken 154th, was expected to gain just 7.
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